Oil prices have plunged after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, raising fears of a global trade war but offering relief to energy importers like Türkiye, analysts told. Fereydoun Barkeshli of Vienna Energy Research Group said lower prices will cut Türkiye’s energy bill, though a global slowdown could hurt growth.
“Trump’s trade war signals a new economic order, but Türkiye is safe for now,” he said, eyeing regionalized trade and less dollar reliance. Kpler’s Homayoun Falakshahi tied price drops to weaker growth, cutting U.S. forecasts from 2 percent to 0.8 percent and Brent’s 12-month average from $71 to $66. Türkiye, importing 58,000 barrels daily, benefits from lower costs and a weaker dollar, despite lira depreciation.
Falakshahi noted weaker petroleum demand, cut from 750,000 to 500,000 barrels per day. U.S. shale oil faces pressure, with a $65 breakeven price. “At $60 for months, production could drop 300,000 barrels daily by year-end,” he said.
